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British Pound (GBP) Worth Outlook: GBP/USD Could Fall Additional as USD Energy Persists


GBP worth, information and evaluation:

  • GBP/USD has been falling steeply since Friday, largely as a result of USD energy.
  • That weak spot may properly persist because the pair nears essential assist ranges.
  • The UK flash buying managers’ indexes (PMIs) for November, launched this session, got here in above economists’ expectations however had no influence on GBP.

GBP nonetheless underneath downward stress

GBP/USD will doubtless lengthen the falls that started final Friday because the US Greenback continues to profit from the reselection of Jay Powell as chair of the US Federal Reserve. His reappointment is now anticipated to be a formality, and that would properly imply a quicker withdrawal of US financial stimulus and several other US rate of interest will increase subsequent 12 months.

Furthermore, the prospect of a UK rate of interest hike when the Financial institution of England’s financial coverage committee subsequent meets on December 16 continues to be absolutely priced in to the markets, that means there’s little upside for GBP/USD if that’s confirmed, and substantial draw back if it isn’t. Pricing places the probabilities of a price rise to 0.25% from the present 0.10% at 100%.

Turning to the GBP/USD chart, the primary vital assist stage is the 1.3353 low touched on November 12, with trendline assist at 1.3280. If these break, the pair will likely be again at ranges not seen since December 2020. Word too that the 14-day relative energy index (RSI) on the backside of the chart beneath stays above the 30 oversold stage.

GBP/USD Worth Chart, Every day Timeframe (September 21, 2020 – November 23, 2021)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Supply: IG (You may click on on it for a bigger picture)

UK PMIs greater than anticipated

Within the information, the November flash PMIs for the UK all got here in above the consensus forecasts of economists polled by the information businesses. The composite index was nonetheless down marginally from October however the manufacturing index truly rose.


Supply: DailyFX calendar

As for sentiment, IG shopper positioning information for GBP/USD are additionally suggesting additional falls for GBP/USD. The retail dealer information present 71.66% of merchants are net-long, with the ratio of merchants lengthy to brief at 2.53 to 1. The variety of merchants net-long is 7.68% greater than yesterday however 5.28% decrease than final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 0.33% decrease than yesterday and 5.67% decrease than final week.

Right here at DailyFX, we sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests GBP/USD costs might proceed to fall. Merchants are additional net-long than yesterday and final week, and the mix of present sentiment and up to date modifications offers us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian buying and selling bias.

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Be happy to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX supplies foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the developments that affect the worldwide foreign money markets.

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