BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOc1) TALKING POINTS
- Macro setting pointing to sustained downward strain for brent crude.
- CFTC information exhibits added longs.
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Brent crude oil opened the week marginally decrease after demand aspect fears proceed to overwhelm forecasts regardless of the latest OPEC+ provide minimize announcement. The macro setting has slipped into additional turmoil with the eurozone coming into the winter months heightening recessionary fears, leaving the areas crude oil calls for negligible. Wanting on the newest CFTC positioning (see picture under), web longs have risen sharply however because of the lag in information, final week’s response has doubtless modified to the draw back reflective within the present worth.
ICE BRENT CRUDE OIL CFTC POSITIONING – TOTAL OVERNIGHT INTEREST
Supply: Refinitiv
Over the weekend, China’s 20th Occasion Congress commenced revealing no change of their ‘zero COVID’ coverage which has been stifling crude oil demand estimates. From a USD perspective, final weeks CPI print is more likely to hold the dollar elevated all through 2022 including additional strain on brent crude bulls.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART -UNDATED
Chart ready by Warren Venketas, IG
Brent crude day by day worth motion exhibits some blended motion as we speak but nonetheless holding above the 90.00 help deal with. It appears after the OPEC+ output discount assertion, that is the brand new ‘line within the sand’ for now however a break under (day by day candle shut) may fairly simply open up 85.00 and past. Bears could also be making ready for such a transfer contemplating the mounting headwinds going through crude oil.
Key resistance ranges:
- 95.20
- 50-day EMA (blue)
- 20-day EMA (purple)
Key help ranges:
- 90.00
- 85.00
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED
IGCS exhibits retail merchants are NET LONG on crude oil, with 70% of merchants at the moment holding brief positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however latest adjustments in lengthy and brief positioning lead to a short-term cautious bias.
Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas
DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the developments that affect the worldwide foreign money markets.
