Birmingham , UK

GBP/USD: Bearish fundamentals stay in place however selloff overdone – MUFG


Analysts at MUFG Financial institution, level out the GBP/USD pair has weakened sharply after breaking under the 1.3000-level. They take into account the pound grew to become deeply oversold and weak spot has overshot short-term basic drivers rising the chance of a short lived aid rally.

Key Quotes:

“Unsurprisingly technical indicators are signalling that the GBP is now closely oversold in opposition to the USD within the close to -term which will increase the chance of a short lived aid rally. The 14-day RSI has reached its low est degree since March 2020. On the similar time, our short-term regression mannequin is signalling that cable has overshot basic drivers to the draw back.”

“In gentle of the constructing dangers for a sharper decelerate for the UK financial system as the price of residing disaster takes extra of a toll on exercise, we count on the BoE to keep up a extra cautious outlook over the necessity for additional tightening because it finely balances upside dangers to inflation in opposition to draw back dangers to progress when setting coverage. It ought to favour the BoE sticking to smaller 25bps hikes at upcoming coverage conferences. The UK charge market is pricing in 25bps hikes in any respect six remaining MPC conferences this 12 months. GBP weak spot w ould be strengthened if the BoE indicators that charge hikes may very well be paused sooner in response to weaker progress.”

“The basic outlook continues to favour additional GBP weak spot. A cautious message from the BoE ought to assist a weaker GBP within the week forward. The primary threat is that the GBP is already closely oversold.”


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