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US: This autumn GDP development to disappoint at 2.2% – TD Securities

“Following weak December retail gross sales and core capital items knowledge, we search for This autumn GDP development to disappoint at 2.2%,” mentioned TD Securities in a just lately printed report previewing subsequent week’s macroeconomic knowledge releases.

Key quotes

“Whereas consumption expenditures must be respectable (higher 2% vary), we search for drags from housing and inventories. Word that, because of the shutdown, this report can be a mix of the preliminary and second releases; there’ll solely be one subsequent revision.”

“Chair Powell offers two days of Congressional (previously often known as Humphrey-Hawkins) testimony. Anticipate him to emphasise persistence, stating that any extra hikes this yr would doubtless require some pickup in inflation. On the stability sheet, he is not going to front-run the FOMC and announce something new, however repeat that the Committee expects runoff might finish later this yr.”