Birmingham , UK

USD/ZAR Forecast: Greenback Bid As Threat Aversion Extends, Rand to Take a look at 16.00?

usd/zar-forecast:-greenback-bid-as-threat-aversion-extends,-rand-to-take-a-look-at-16.00?

RAND ANALYSIS

  • Market sentiment rejects riskier rand.
  • Key U.S. knowledge prints could also be overshadowed by COVID-19 scenario.
  • USD/ZAR channel break.

ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

YEARLY HIGHS FOR USD/ZAR AS RISK OFF SENTIMENT GRIPS FX MARKETS

Final week’s Rising Market (EM) forex selloff was underway after Turkey’s central financial institution determined to chop rates of interest and continued into Friday’s market shut when European COVID-19 instances sparked contagion fears. In the present day, the rand opened marginally increased in opposition to the U.S. greenback regardless of its safe-haven enchantment as pandemic uncertainties stay. Different conventional safe-havens such because the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) have prolonged their features which might see the rand weaken in opposition to the buck because the buying and selling day progresses.

U.S. ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS THIS WEEK

U.S. manufacturing PMI knowledge and core PCE inflation knowledge (Fed’s most well-liked metric) are anticipated this week (see financial calendar beneath)nonetheless increased than forecasted prints might not have the traditional impact this week as markets mull over the COVID-19 scenario in Europe. A cagey method could also be adopted because the potential of a broadening pandemic might additional dampen hawkish prospects. From a USD/ZAR perspective, the rand stays susceptible to additional weak spot whereas world influences dictate.

DFX econ calendar

Supply: DailyFX financial calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/ZAR DAILY CHART

USD/ZAR daily chart

Chart ready by Warren Venketas, IG

On Friday, we noticed recent yearly highs come into play because the January swing excessive at 15.6648 resistance degree was breached by a day by day candle shut. The lengthy standing resistance now turned help will probably be an vital degree to watch this week. Channel resistance (yellow) was included within the upside rally and coincides with the 15.6648 degree.

Ought to worth motion stay above 15.6648 and channel resistance we might see bulls pushing for the 16.0000 psychological deal with – final seen in November 2020.

The Relative Energy Index (RSI) is suggestive of bearish divergence which eludes to the contradictory transfer in USD/ZAR worth motion (increased highs) to the RSI indicator (decrease highs). Historically, technical analysts use this as a bearish sign whereby costs are anticipated to reverse from their present bullish trajectory. A tentative method ought to be exercised with this methodology as timings could be unsure.

Resistance ranges:

  • 16.0000
  • 15.8000

Assist ranges:

  • 15.6648 – January 2021 swing excessive/channel resistance (yellow)
  • 15.5735
  • 15.4289 – 50% Fibonacci degree

Contact and comply with Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX supplies foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the developments that affect the worldwide forex markets.

Leave a comment