USD/CAD anticipated to commerce transfer in a 1.32-1.33 vary in March – Rabobank
Analysts at Rabobank, anticipate the USD/CAD pair to commerce in March across the 1.32-1.33 vary earlier than transferring to 1.31 in April.
“USD/CAD has fallen round 3.5% year-to-date however at one level the pair was 4.35% off the December 31st print of 1.3665 which was the best stage seen since Could 2017. The majority of the transfer occurred on the primary seven buying and selling days of the yr because the pair slumped 3.5%. Value motion since then has tended to remain throughout the 1.31-1.34 vary. Gamma has typically been higher provided. Historic and implied vols have been falling and the danger reversal is near the flattest it has been in years.”
“Though USD/CAD has typically been vary buying and selling in a 1.31-1.34 vary following the sharp decline firstly of the yr, an inverse head and shoulders sample is doubtlessly forming which might require a break above 1.33 and supply a goal of 1.36 if it does come to fruition. That isn’t our base case within the close to time period however the pair is at the moment testing resistance on the 100 day transferring common (dma) of 1.3269. On the draw back, the 50dma has provided robust assist over current weeks with the pair dipping beneath there intraday however failing to shut. Momentum indicators stay in impartial territory and the pair shouldn’t be in robust trending territory.”
“We anticipate USD/CAD to primarily commerce a 1.32-1.33 vary in March earlier than heading decrease in April with the potential to retest 1.31. Additional out, we anticipate an upside bias with USD/CAD primarily buying and selling within the 1.32-1.34 vary in H2 of this yr.”