MKT CALL: MACRO OVERVIEW:
- Skyrocketing Fed hike odds and a widening of the stomach of the US yield curve have lifted the US Greenback to contemporary yearly highs.
- Oil costs could also be in a sideways lurch, and a double prime is feasible if the November low is damaged.
- US shares are treading water, not sudden given seasonal tendencies for mid-November. However the finish of the yr is anticipated to be robust; purchase the dip mentality stays.
That US Greenback is So Scorching Proper Now
On this week’s version of MKT Name: Macro (previously The Macro Setup), we talked about how scorching US inflation figures are pushing markets to do the Fed’s bidding – pricing in additional fee hikes whilst Fed officers recommend that persistence is warranted – which helps the US Greenback (by way of the DXY Index) prolong its rally to contemporary yearly highs.
A part of the robust US Greenback story is the weak Euro story. Tormented by rising COVID-19 infections, dangerous information on the power provide entrance as Germany has introduced its delaying certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia, and a European Central Financial institution that appears decided to maintain rates of interest low no matter incoming inflation knowledge, the Euro has been falling sharply in current days. The widening chasm between Fed and ECB coverage is enjoying a major half in serving to prop up the DXY Index.
Even because the US Greenback rally continues, treasured metals have been revived of their function as an historic inflation hedge (transfer over, Bitcoin and Etherium). Gold costs have made an essential technical breakout above the 1835 degree, and with US inflation readings anticipated to remain elevated into 1Q’22, the surroundings of decrease actual yields that has assist spur the rally in gold costs might persist for just a few extra months – establishing a possible return above 1900 and extra within the near-term.
*For commentary from Dan Nathan, Man Adami, and myself on the US Greenback (by way of the DXY Index), the US S&P 500, gold costs, Bitcoin, amongst others, please watch the video embedded on the prime of this text.
CHARTS OF THE WEEK
Eurodollar Futures Contract Unfold (DECEMBER 2021-DECEMBER 2023) [BLUE], US 2s5s10s Butterfly [ORANGE], DXY Index [WHITE]: Every day Chart (MAY 2021 to NOVEMBER 2021) (Chart 1)
GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (MAY2020 TO NOVEMBER 2021) (CHART 2)
GBP/JPY RATE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (MARCH 2020 TO NOVEMBER 2021) (CHART 3)
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the tendencies that affect the worldwide foreign money markets.