EUR/USD
EUR/USD has had a bumpy journey thus far this yr with essentially the most actively traded fx-pair beginning the yr simply off a six-month excessive earlier than sliding to a multi-week low in mid-February. Since then the pair have pushed larger, making a transparent ascending channel, earlier than beginning to flip decrease once more. And as we head into the second quarter of the yr, EUR/USD is buying and selling round a technically vital space, which for now seems seemingly that it’ll lead the pair decrease. EUR/USD has closed, and extra importantly opened, beneath the current pattern help degree and is now siting simply above all three simple-moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late-September 2022 to mid-July 2023 rally. A break beneath 1.0787 opens the best way to additional losses all the way down to the mid-February low slightly below 1.0700. Beneath right here, the October 2022 low at 1.0450 turns into the subsequent goal. Any transfer larger in EUR/USD will seemingly be on account of adjustments within the US greenback and market expectations of their upcoming charge minimize cycle. Any transfer larger in EUR/USD will discover preliminary resistance round 1.0980. If that is damaged with conviction, a cluster of prior resistance ranges between 1.1095 and 1.1139 will show troublesome to interrupt.
EUR/USD Each day Worth Chart
Supply: TradingView, Ready by Nick Cawley
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is one other pair that has been buying and selling in an outlined vary over a lot of the first quarter. Help round 0.8500 has held agency and promoted a pointy rebound throughout its two exams, whereas the 0.8550 space has seen a wide range of highs and lows printed on both aspect. As we write, multi-month resistance is being damaged on account of a present bout of Sterling weak point, and the 200-day SMA at 0.8606 and a previous set of highs round 0.8620 is ready to come back underneath stress quickly. Within the brief time period, a transfer above 0.8620 could nicely occur however with the CCI indicator exhibiting the market in extraordinarily overbought territory, a interval of consolidation is probably going. Whereas the trail of least resistance stays pointed larger, a transfer considerably larger – above 0.8700 – will battle for traction. EUR/GBP seems set to commerce larger in Q2, however not noticeably.
EUR/GBP Each day Worth Chart
Supply: TradingView, Ready by Nick Cawley
After buying a radical understanding of the euro technical setup, why not discover out what the basics counsel by downloading the total euro Q2 forecast?
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY has trended larger for the reason that begin of 2024 regardless of expectations that the European Central Financial institution will minimize charges and that the Financial institution of Japan will elevate rates of interest. Certainly, the EUR/JPY ascending channel has been in place since Might 2020 when the pair traded round 115, in comparison with a present spot value of 164. From a basic angle, EUR/JPY ought to begin to flip decrease within the second quarter because the yield differential between the 2 currencies narrows. Nevertheless, from a technical viewpoint, the pair could transfer larger nonetheless. The weekly chart exhibits that the ascending channel stays in place and the pair commerce above all three easy shifting averages. The CCI indicator suggests EUR/JPY is beginning to turn out to be overbought however just isn’t but near the intense ranges seen in November final yr. EUR/JPY will seemingly vary commerce within the coming weeks earlier than both fundamentals or technicals take over and direct the subsequent transfer.
EUR/JPY Weekly Worth Chart
Supply: TradingView, Ready by Nick Cawley
Searching for actionable buying and selling concepts? Obtain our high buying and selling alternatives information filled with insightful ideas for the second quarter!
DailyFX gives foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the tendencies that affect the worldwide foreign money markets.
