The month of April wraps up at the moment and it was a risky market, definitely not one which’s usually the strongest seasonally of the 12 months.
Scorecard for April:
- Usually the strongest of the 12 months for cable (down 120 pips)
- Strongest month for the S&P 500 (down 2.9%)
- Copper seasonals robust (up 14.7%)
- Oil robust April-June (down 2.1%, although was stronger till this week)
- Strongest month for AUD/USD (flat) and AUD/JPY (up 360 pips)
- Second-best month for EUR/USD (down 90 pips)
- Second-best month for Shanghai Comp (up 2%)
The takeaway right here is the that China-related trades did nicely, together with betting on the continuing yen decline. Greenback trades and dangers merchants had been wounded by stubbornly excessive inflation and the best way that goes will go a alongside approach in the direction of figuring out what occurs in Might. That stated, seasonals are almost as constructive within the upcoming month.
Numbers since 2000 for Might:
- Strongest month for the Greenback Index
- Weakest month for EUR/USD
- Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
- AUD/CAD is especially weak, softest month by far
- Second-strongest month for copper
- Strongest month for oil, although in all probability skewed by the huge proportion achieve (+88%) in Might 2020
- Breaking it down, the primary week of Might is usually the strongest for shares whereas the second week is the weakest
